Three scenarios for the real estate market in Q2 are presented

According to experts, after a slowdown at the beginning of the year due to seasonal factors and interest rate/macroeconomic pressures, the real estate market in Q2 2026 is expected to perform more positively than in Q1 2026. This is because businesses are starting to get back on track with projects, public investment continues to be boosted, and buyer demand remains present in the market.

Ms. Nguyen Thi Kim Thoa, Director of Business Development – Products at Dat Xanh Services, commented that the Vietnamese residential real estate market in the second quarter will see positive changes, with a significant increase in new supply compared to the beginning of the year, especially in the context of a more stable macroeconomic outlook, but with policies still being managed cautiously.

However, the growth rate and absorption rate will depend on many factors, resulting in three different scenarios.

In the ideal scenario, supply increases by approximately 40% – 50%; selling prices increase by 10% – 15%; floating interest rates remain at 9% – 11%; and the absorption rate reaches 50% – 60%. This represents strong growth, but it heavily depends on the ability to ease policies, open up credit for real estate, and the simultaneous improvement of many fundamental factors.

In the expected scenario, the market operates at a controlled growth rate. Supply increases by 30-40%; selling prices increase by 2-5%; interest rates float at 10-12%; and the absorption rate reaches 30-40%.

In the challenging scenario, where capital costs increase and monetary policy remains tightly controlled, supply increases by 20% – 30%; selling prices remain stable or decrease slightly; interest rates float at 12% – 14%; and the absorption rate is below 20%.

The real estate market is predicted to perform better in the second quarter than in the first quarter. (Illustrative image: Minh Duc).

Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan, Director of PropertyGuru Vietnam in the Southern region, commented that the real estate market entering the second quarter is no longer in a state of decline, but it is also not yet in a boom phase; it is in a transitional phase. After a slowdown at the beginning of the year, buyer interest has started to return, although still lower than the same period last year.

“I believe that the real estate market will be more positive in the second quarter. The market doesn’t lack opportunities; it’s just lacking products that are good enough to absorb the investment.” Mr. Tuan said.

Market liquidity is expected to improve selectively in Q2 2026.

The key point, according to Mr. Tuan, is that the demand structure has changed significantly. The current market is driven by genuine homebuyers and long-term investors, rather than short-term speculative capital as in previous cycles.

In addition, a positive sign in the second quarter is the gradual improvement in liquidity, but with a highly selective approach.

Specifically, the apartment segment in major cities continues to play a leading role thanks to stable demand for actual housing. Meanwhile, land plots in suburban areas are starting to show signs of renewed interest, but there will no longer be strong “waves” like before, and it will depend heavily on planning and infrastructure.

“If the positive scenario unfolds with interest rates cooling down, public investment continuing to be strongly promoted, and the government prioritizing economic growth targets, then the market will see more active sales transactions.” Mr. Tuan commented.

However, geopolitical factors still pose significant uncertainties, as prolonged wars could lead to energy crises, disrupt global supply chains, and inflation and austerity measures will have conflicting impacts on the market in the second quarter, as well as the remaining quarters of 2026.

Businesses need to adjust their strategies

According to Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association, the high interest rate environment is forcing businesses to change their management mindset, shifting from a rapid expansion strategy to prioritizing risk management, and from short-term goals to a more long-term and sustainable orientation.

While capital is not completely withdrawing from the market, it is becoming more cautious.

However, Mr. Dinh noted that real estate prices are unlikely to fall across the board given the rising costs of land, construction, capital, etc. The market will continue to be strongly differentiated.

Products with clear legal status, reasonable prices, and connected to real infrastructure will maintain liquidity, while products overpriced beyond their potential value will face many difficulties.

From a business perspective, Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh Huong, General Director of Eras Land, said that after facing many uncontrollable fluctuations in the first quarter, real estate businesses are all taking a cautious approach and adjusting their business plans to prioritize resource preservation.

Developers are focusing on flexible payment policies to support customers in overcoming the period of high interest rates.

According to Ms. Huong, the second quarter plays a crucial role in determining the real estate market situation in 2026. There is a high probability that interest rates will be adjusted and significantly reduced in the second quarter.

Along with that, to increase sales efficiency, developers still need to offer flexible payment solutions for buyers.

Sharing the same view, Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh Thao – Deputy General Director in charge of Business and Marketing at Phu Dong Group – also shared that the first quarter of 2026 was a period when the market was clearly impacted by the information about rising mortgage interest rates, creating a short-term “brake.”

However, looking deeper, the market is not weakening at all, but is entering a process of rebalancing. Liquidity is not lost but is shifting towards products that are more suitable to affordability and actual usage needs.

Entering the second quarter, the market will shift to a selective recovery phase. Buyers will begin to return, but with a more cautious mindset and higher standards.

Ms. Thao predicted that in the third quarter, the market would enter a supply boom phase as many projects simultaneously launched after a long period of stagnation.

In this context, the second quarter can be considered a crucial preparatory period before the new supply surge. This is when market sentiment gradually stabilizes, and buyer preferences become clearer.

“From a business perspective, we believe that Q2/2026 is a pivotal period for reviewing our product portfolio, finalizing legal frameworks, and adjusting pricing strategies and sales policies to anticipate the surge in supply expected from Q3 onwards.”

“The market will be very clearly differentiated between segments. Apartments – especially the mid-range, affordable segment – will continue to play a leading role in liquidity thanks to their accessible prices. Along with that, satellite urban areas of Ho Chi Minh City connected to major infrastructure such as ring roads and metro lines will be the focal point attracting buyers.” Ms. Thao stated.